Kuye kwaqatshelwa ukuba amaxabiso eemveliso zekhemikhali kwimarike ayaqhubeka nokuhla, nto leyo ekhokelela kukungalingani kwexabiso kuninzi lwamakhonkco ekhonkco leshishini lemichiza.Amaxabiso e-oyile azinzileyo anyuse uxinzelelo lweendleko kwikhonkco leshishini lemichiza, kwaye uqoqosho lwemveliso yeemveliso ezininzi zemichiza lubi.Nangona kunjalo, ixabiso lemarike ye-vinyl acetate liye lafumana ukwehla okuqhubekayo, kodwa inzuzo yemveliso iye yahlala iphezulu kwaye uqoqosho lwemveliso lulungile.Ngoko, kutheni kunokwenzekaiacetate yevinylimarike ukugcina inqanaba eliphezulu impumelelo?

Ukusukela phakathi ukuya ekupheleni kukaJuni ka-2023, ixabiso lemarike yevinyl acetate yi-6400 yuan/ton.Ngokwamanqanaba exabiso lezinto eziluhlaza kwindlela ye-ethylene kunye nendlela ye-calcium carbide, i-profit margin ye-ethylene method vinyl acetate imalunga ne-14%, ngelixa i-profit margin ye-calcium carbide method vinyl acetate ikwimeko yokulahlekelwa.Ngaphandle kokuhla okuqhubekayo kwexabiso le-vinyl acetate ngonyaka, umda wenzuzo ye-ethylene esekelwe kwi-vinyl acetate uhlala uphezulu, ufikelela phezulu njenge-47% kwezinye iimeko, ibe yimveliso ephezulu yengeniso phakathi kweekhemikhali ezininzi.Ngokwahlukileyo, indlela ye-calcium carbide ye-vinyl acetate ibikwimeko yolahleko uninzi lweminyaka emibini edlulileyo.

Ngokuhlalutya utshintsho kwimida yenzuzo ye-ethylene esekelwe kwi-vinyl acetate kunye ne-calcium carbide esekelwe kwi-vinyl acetate, kufunyenwe ukuba i-ethylene esekelwe kwi-vinyl acetate ibisoloko inenzuzo kwiminyaka embalwa edlulileyo, kunye nomda ophezulu wenzuzo ofikelela kwi-50% okanye ngaphezulu kunye nomndilili. inqanaba lomda wenzuzo malunga ne-15%.Oku kubonisa ukuba i-ethylene esekelwe kwi-vinyl acetate ibe nengeniso ngokuthelekiswa kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo, kunye nokuchuma okulungileyo kunye nemida yenzuzo ezinzileyo.Kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo, ngaphandle kweenzuzo ezibalulekileyo ukususela ngo-Matshi 2022 ukuya kuJulayi 2022, indlela ye-calcium carbide ye-vinyl acetate ibe kwimeko yokulahlekelwa kuwo onke amanye amaxesha.Ukusukela ngoJuni ka-2023, inqanaba lomda wenzuzo yendlela ye-calcium carbide ye-vinyl acetate yayimalunga ne-20% yelahleko, kwaye i-avareji yenzuzo yomda we-calcium carbide method vinyl acetate kule minyaka mibini idlulileyo yaba yilahleko eyi-0.2%.Kule nto, kunokubonwa ukuba ukuchuma kwendlela ye-calcium carbide ye-vinyl acetate ihlwempuzekileyo, kwaye imeko yonke ibonisa ilahleko.

Ngokuhlalutya olongezelelweyo, izizathu eziphambili zenzuzo ephezulu ye-ethylene esekelwe kwi-vinyl acetate imveliso zilandelayo: okokuqala, umlinganiselo weendleko zezinto eziluhlaza kwiinkqubo ezahlukeneyo zokuvelisa ziyahluka.Kwindlela ye-ethylene ye-vinyl acetate, ukusetyenziswa kweyunithi ye-ethylene yi-0.35, kunye neyunithi yokusetyenziswa kwe-glacial acetic acid yi-0.72.Ngokwezinga lexabiso eliphakathi ngoJuni ka-2023, i-ethylene ithatha malunga ne-37% yeendleko ze-ethylene esekelwe kwi-vinyl acetate, ngelixa i-glacial acetic acid yenza i-45%.Ngoko ke, ngenxa yempembelelo yeendleko, ukuguquguquka kwexabiso le-acetic acid ye-glacial kunempembelelo enkulu ekutshintsheni kweendleko ze-ethylene esekelwe kwi-vinyl acetate, elandelwa yi-ethylene.Ngokweempembelelo kwiindleko ze-calcium carbide indlela ye-vinyl acetate, ixabiso le-calcium carbide ye-calcium carbide indlela ye-vinyl acetate i-akhawunti malunga ne-47%, kunye neendleko ze-glacial acetic acid ye-calcium carbide indlela ye-vinyl acetate i-akhawunti malunga ne-35% .Ngoko ke, kwindlela ye-calcium carbide ye-vinyl acetate, ukuguqulwa kwexabiso le-calcium carbide kunempembelelo enkulu kwiindleko.Oku kwahluke kakhulu kwiimpembelelo zeendleko zendlela ye-ethylene.

Okwesibini, ukuhla kwezixhobo ze-ethylene kunye ne-glacial acetic acid kwakubalulekile, okukhokelela ekunciphiseni okukhulu kweendleko.Kunyaka odlulileyo, ixabiso le-CFR Northeast Asia ethylene liye lehla nge-33%, kwaye ixabiso le-glacial acetic acid liye lehla nge-32%.Nangona kunjalo, ixabiso le-vinyl acetate eveliswa yindlela ye-calcium carbide igxininiswe kakhulu ngexabiso le-calcium carbide.Kunyaka odlulileyo, ixabiso le-calcium carbide liye lawa nge-cumulative 25%.Ngoko ke, ngokombono weenkqubo ezimbini ezahlukeneyo zokuvelisa, iindleko ze-vinyl acetate eziveliswa ngendlela ye-ethylene ziye zancipha kakhulu, kwaye ukunciphisa iindleko kukhulu kunendlela ye-calcium carbide.

Nangona ixabiso le-vinyl acetate liye lancipha, ukuhla kwayo akubalulekanga njengamanye amachiza.Ngokutsho kwezibalo, kunyaka odlulileyo, ixabiso le-vinyl acetate liye lawa nge-59%, enokuthi ibonakale ibalulekile, kodwa ezinye iikhemikhali ziye zafumana ukwehla okukhulu.Imeko yangoku ebuthathaka kwimarike yemichiza yaseTshayina kunzima ukuyitshintsha ngokusisiseko.Kulindeleke ukuba kwixesha elizayo, kukho amathuba aphezulu okuba inzuzo yemveliso yeemarike zabathengi bokugqibela, ngokukodwa iimveliso ezifana ne-polyvinyl alcohol kunye ne-EVA, ziya kugcinwa ngokucinezela inzuzo ye-vinyl acetate.

Kukho ukungalingani kwexabiso kushishino lwangoku lwemichiza, kwaye iimveliso ezininzi zikwimo yeendleko eziphezulu kodwa imarike yabathengi icotha, nto leyo ekhokelela kuqoqosho olulambathayo lwemveliso.Nangona kunjalo, nangona ijongene nobunzima, imakethi ye-vinyl acetate igcine inqanaba eliphezulu lenzuzo, ngakumbi ngenxa yomlinganiselo owahlukileyo weendleko zemathiriyeli ekrwada kwinkqubo yayo yokuvelisa kunye nokwehliswa kweendleko okubangelwa kukwehla kwamaxabiso ezinto ezikrwada.Nangona kunjalo, imeko ebuthathaka yemarike yamachiza yaseTshayina yexesha elizayo kunzima ukuyitshintsha ngokusisiseko.Kulindeleke ukuba kwixesha elizayo, kukho amathuba aphezulu okuba inzuzo yemveliso yeemarike zabathengi bokugqibela, ngokukodwa iimveliso ezifana ne-polyvinyl alcohol kunye ne-EVA, ziya kugcinwa ngokucinezela inzuzo ye-vinyl acetate.