Ngo-2022, ixabiso le-oyile kumazwe ngamazwe lenyuka kakhulu, ixabiso lerhasi yendalo eYurophu nase-United States lenyuka kakhulu, ukuchasana phakathi kokunikezelwa kwamalahle kunye nemfuno yokuqina, kwaye nengxaki yamandla yanda.Ngokuphindaphindiweyo kweziganeko zempilo yasekhaya, imarike yeekhemikhali ingene kwimeko yoxinzelelo oluphindwe kabini lokubonelela kunye nemfuno.

Ukungena ngo-2023, amathuba kunye nemiceli mngeni ikhona, ukusuka ekukhuthazeni imfuno yasekhaya ngokusebenzisa imigaqo-nkqubo eyahlukeneyo ukuya kulawulo lokuvula ngokupheleleyo.
Kuluhlu lwamaxabiso eemveliso kwisiqingatha sokuqala sikaJanuwari 2023, bekukho izinto ezingama-43 kwicandelo leekhemikhali eziye zanyuka ngenyanga-ngenyanga, kubandakanywa neemveliso ezi-5 eziye zanyuka ngaphezu kwe-10%, zibalelwa kwi-4.6% yokubekwa iliso. imveliso kwishishini;Iimveliso ezintathu eziphezulu ze-MIBK (18.7%), ipropane (17.1%), i-1,4-butanediol (11.8%).Kukho izinto zorhwebo ezingama-45 ezinokuhla kwenyanga nenyanga, kunye neempahla ezi-6 eziye zehla ngaphezu kwe-10%, ezibalelwa kwi-5.6% yenani leemveliso ezibekwe iliso kweli candelo;Iimveliso ezintathu eziphezulu ekunciphiseni ziyi-polysilicon (- 32.4%), i-tar yamalahle (iqondo lokushisa eliphezulu) (- 16.7%) kunye ne-acetone (- 13.2%).Umyinge wokunyuka kunye noluhlu lokuwa lwaluyi-0.1%.
Yandisa uluhlu (ukwandisa ngaphezu kwe-5%)

Ixabiso le-MIBK linyuke nge-18.7%
Emva koSuku loNyaka oMtsha, imakethi ye-MIBK yachatshazelwa kukuqiniswa kolindelo lonikezelo.Umyinge wexabiso kazwelonke unyuke ukusuka kwi-14766 yuan/toni nge-2 kaJanuwari ukuya kwi-17533 yuan/toni nge-13 kaJanuwari.
1. Ukunikezelwa kulindeleke ukuba kube nzima, iitoni ze-50000 / ngonyaka wezixhobo ezinkulu ziya kuvalwa, kwaye izinga lokusebenza lasekhaya liya kuhla ukusuka kwi-80% ukuya kwi-40%.Unikezelo lwexesha elifutshane kulindeleke ukuba lube lukhuni, olunzima ukutshintsha.
2. Emva koSuku loNyaka oMtsha, eyona nto iphambili yokuzaliswa kwemizi-mveliso ye-antioxidant esezantsi, kunye neefektri ezisezantsi nazo zizaliswa emva kwexesha lee-odolo ezincinci.Njengoko iholide isondela, imfuno esezantsi yee-odolo ezincinci iyancipha, kwaye ukuchasana nezinto eziphakamileyo zexabiso eliphezulu kubonakala.Ngonikezelo lwempahla evela kumazwe angaphandle, ixabiso ngokuthe ngcembe lafikelela kwincopho yalo kwaye ukunyuka kwacotha.

Ixabiso lepropane linyuke nge-17.1%
Ngo-2023, imakethi yepropane yaqala kakuhle, kwaye ixabiso eliphakathi kwimakethi ye-Shandong propane yenyuka ukusuka kwi-5082 yuan/ton nge-2nd ukuya kwi-5920 yuan/ton ngomhla we-14, ngexabiso eliphakathi kwe-6000 yuan/toni nge-11.
1. Kwinqanaba lokuqala, ixabiso kwimarike esenyakatho laliphantsi, imfuno ephantsi yomlambo yayizinzile, kwaye ishishini liye lachithwa ngokufanelekileyo.Emva komthendeleko, i-downstream yaqala ukuzalisa iimpahla ngezigaba, ngelixa i-inventory ephezulu yayiphantsi.Ngexesha elifanayo, umthamo wokufika kwamva nje kwi-port uphantsi, ukuthengiswa kweemarike kuyancipha, kwaye ixabiso lepropane liqala ukunyuka ngamandla.
2. Enye i-PDH iphinde yaqala ukusebenza kwaye imfuno yoshishino lweekhemikhali yanda kakhulu.Ngenkxaso efunekayo nje, amaxabiso epropane kulula ukunyuka kwaye kunzima ukuwa.Emva kweholide, ixabiso lepropane laphakama, libonisa i-phenomenon eqinile enyakatho kwaye ibuthathaka kumzantsi.Kwinqanaba lokuqala, i-arbitrage yokuthumela ngaphandle kwemithombo yempahla ephantsi kwimarike esemantla yanciphisa ngokufanelekileyo uluhlu lwempahla.Ngenxa yexabiso eliphezulu, iimpahla kwimarike esemazantsi ayigudi, kwaye amaxabiso alungisiwe emva komnye.Njengoko iholide isondela, ezinye iifektri zingena kwimodi yeholide, kwaye abasebenzi abafudukayo ngokuthe ngcembe babuyela ekhaya.
Ixabiso le-1.4-Butanediol linyuke nge-11.8%
Emva komthendeleko, intengo yefandesi yoshishino yenyuka ngokukhawuleza, kwaye ixabiso le-1.4-butanediol lenyuka ukusuka kwi-9780 yuan / ton ngomhla we-2 ukuya kwi-10930 yuan / ton kwi-13.
1. Amashishini emveliso akafuni ukuthengisa imarike yendawo.Kwangaxeshanye, ifandesi yendawo kunye neentengiselwano eziphezulu zeefektri eziphambili zikhuthaza ukugxila kwemarike ukuba kunyuke.Ukongeza kwindawo yokupaka kunye nokugcinwa kwesigaba sokuqala seTokyo Biotech, umthwalo weshishini wehlile kancinci, kwaye amashishini okuvelisa ayaqhubeka nokuhambisa iiodolo zekhontrakthi.Inqanaba lokubonelela nge-BDO ngokucacileyo lilungile.
2. Ngokunyuka komthwalo wokuqalisa ngokutsha kwezixhobo ze-BASF e-Shanghai, imfuno yoshishino lwe-PTMEG iye yanda, ngelixa amanye amashishini asezantsi anenguqu encinci, kwaye imfuno ingcono kancinane.Nangona kunjalo, njengoko iholide isondela, ezinye iindawo eziphakathi kunye nezisezantsi zingena kwixesha leeholide kwangaphambili, kwaye umthamo wokurhweba kwimarike jikelele ulinganiselwe.
Uluhlu olulahliweyo (ngaphantsi kwe-5%)

I-acetone yehle nge-13.2%
Imarike yasekhaya ye-acetone yehla kakhulu, kwaye ixabiso leefektri zase-East China lehla ukusuka kwi-550 yuan/toni ukuya kwi-4820 yuan/ton.
1. Izinga lokusebenza le-acetone lalisondele kwi-85%, kwaye i-inventory ye-port yenyuka ukuya kwi-32000 tons ngomhla we-9, iphakama ngokukhawuleza, kwaye uxinzelelo lokubonelela lwanda.Phantsi koxinzelelo lwempahla yomzi-mveliso, umnini-mpahla unomdla omkhulu wokuthumela.Ngemveliso egudileyo yeShenghong yokuRefining kunye neChemical Phenol Ketone Plant, uxinzelelo lokubonelela kulindeleke ukuba lunyuke.
2. Ukuthengwa kwe-acetone esezantsi kuyacotha.Nangona i-market ye-MIBK esezantsi yenyuka ngokukhawuleza, imfuno yayinganelanga ukunciphisa izinga lokusebenza kwindawo ephantsi.Ukuthatha inxaxheba komlamli kuphantsi.Bawa kakhulu xa iintengiselwano zemarike zingahoywa.Ngokuhla kwemarike, uxinzelelo lwelahleko lwamashishini e-phenolic ketone luyenyuka.Uninzi lweefektri zilinda ukuba imarike icace ngaphambi kokuthenga emva kweholide.Ngaphantsi koxinzelelo lwenzuzo, ingxelo yemarike yayeka ukuwa kwaye yavuka.Imarike ngokuthe ngcembe yacaca emva kweholide.
Uhlalutyo lwe-Aftermarket
Ukususela kumbono weoli engcolileyo ekhuphukayo, isivunguvungu sasebusika sakutshanje sifike e-United States, kwaye ioli engcolileyo kulindeleke ukuba ibe nefuthe eliphantsi, kwaye ukuxhaswa kweendleko zeemveliso zepetrochemical kuya kuba buthathaka.Ekuhambeni kwexesha, imarike yeoyile ayijonganga nje kuphela uxinzelelo olukhulu kunye nemiqobo yomjikelo wokudodobala koqoqosho, kodwa ikwajongana nomdlalo phakathi konikezelo kunye nemfuno.Kwicala lokubonelela, kukho umngcipheko wokuba imveliso yaseRashiya iya kuncipha.I-OEPC + yokunciphisa imveliso iya kuxhasa ezantsi.Ngokwemfuno, ixhaswa yi-macro-cycle inhibition, i-sluggish demand inhibition eYurophu kunye nokukhula kwemfuno e-Asia.Ukuchatshazelwa zii-macro kunye nezikhundla ezincinci ezinde nezimfutshane, imarike yeoyile inokuhlala iguquguquka.
Ngokwembono yabathengi, imigaqo-nkqubo yezoqoqosho yasekhaya ibambelela ngokucacileyo kumjikelo omkhulu wasekhaya kwaye yenza umsebenzi olungileyo womjikelo ophindwe kabini wamazwe ngamazwe kunye wasekhaya.Kwixesha lasemva kobhubhane, yayikhululwe ngokupheleleyo, kodwa inyaniso engenakuphepheka yayikukuba iqumrhu lalisebuthathaka kwaye imo yokulinda-nokubona yaqina emva kweentlungu.Ngokweetheminali, imigaqo-nkqubo yolawulo lwasekhaya iye yaphuculwa, kwaye ulungiselelo kunye nokuzithemba kwabathengi kuye kwabuyiselwa.Nangona kunjalo, iiterminals zexesha elifutshane zidinga ixesha elingekhoyo loMnyhadala weNtwasahlobo, kwaye kunokuba nzima ukuba nenguqu ebalulekileyo kwixesha lokubuyisela.
Ngowama-2023, uqoqosho lwase-China luza kubuyela kancinane ngokucothayo, kodwa ngenxa yokudodobala koqoqosho lwehlabathi kunye nokuqiniswa okulindelweyo kokudodobala koqoqosho e-Europe nase-United States, imarike ye-China yeemveliso ezithunyelwa ngaphandle isazakujongana nemingeni.Ngo-2023, amandla okuvelisa imichiza aya kuqhubeka nokukhula ngokuthe ngcembe.Kulo nyaka uphelileyo, umthamo wasekhaya wemveliso yeekhemikhali unyuke ngokuthe ngcembe, nge-80% yeemveliso zemichiza eziphambili ezibonisa indlela yokukhula kunye ne-5% kuphela yomthamo wemveliso ehlayo.Kwixesha elizayo, eliqhutywa zizixhobo ezixhasayo kunye nekhonkco lenzuzo, amandla okuvelisa imichiza aya kuqhubeka esanda, kwaye ukhuphiswano lwentengiso lunokuqina ngakumbi.Amashishini ekunzima ukwenza izibonelelo zekhonkco lezoshishino kwixesha elizayo aya kujongana nenzuzo okanye uxinzelelo, kodwa aya kuphelisa amandla okuvelisa umva.Ngo-2023, amashishini amakhulu naphakathi aya kugxila ekukhuleni kwamashishini asezantsi.Ngokuqhubeleka okuqhubekayo kwitekhnoloji yasekhaya, ukukhuselwa kwendalo, izixhobo ezitsha eziphezulu, ii-electrolyte kunye namatyathanga oshishino lwamandla omoya ziya zixatyiswa ngamashishini amakhulu.Ngaphantsi kwemvelaphi yekhabhoni ephindwe kabini, amashishini angasemva aya kupheliswa ngesantya esikhawulezayo.