1.1 Uhlalutyo lwentsingiselo ye-BPA yekota yokuqala

Kwikota yokuqala ye-2023, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo le-bisphenol A kwimarike ye-East China yayiyi-9,788 yuan / ton, -21.68% YoY, -44.72% YoY.2023 NgoJanuwari-Februwari i-bisphenol A iyaguquguquka kumgca weendleko kwi-9,600-10,300 yuan / ton.Ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari, kunye nomoya woNyaka oMtsha waseTshayina, kunye nabavelisi abathile ngaphambi komthendeleko ukuvumela umgca wenzuzo, iziko lemarike lomxhuzulane lawela kwi-9,650 yuan / ton.Kwiiveki ezimbini ngaphambi nasemva koMnyhadala weNtwasahlobo, umlambo osezantsi ukuzalisa izikhundla, kwaye emva komthendeleko amaxabiso eoyile enyuka aqhubele phambili unxibelelwano lweshishini, i-bisphenol A abavelisi abaphambili banikezela ukutsala, imarike yavuka, uthethathethwano lwaseMpuma China lutsale ukuya kuthi ga kwi-10200- I-10300 yuan / ton, ikhontrakthi yokwetyisa engundoqo kaFebruwari esezantsi kunye nemarike yoluhlu malunga nexabiso leeyuan ezili-10,000 zokuguquguquka emxinwa.Ukungena ngoMatshi, ukubuyiswa kwemfuno ye-terminal kwacotha, kwaye ukuchasana phakathi kokubonelela kunye nemfuno kwimarike kwagxininiswa, kunye neziganeko zengozi yezemali eYurophu kunye neebhanki zase-United States, ezikhokelele ekunciphiseni kwamaxabiso eoli ukucinezela ingqondo yemarike. , umoya omfutshane wemarike wawucacile.Ukubuyiselwa kwetheminali ezantsi kungaphantsi kunoko bekulindelekile, umthwalo we-epoxy resin uqala unyuke kwaye emva koko uwe kwi-inventri, iziko lePC lomxhuzulane lithambekile, ubonelelo lwemarike kunye nokuchasana kwemfuno kubonisiwe, kudityaniswa neziganeko zomngcipheko wemali ezikhokelele kumaxabiso e-oyile kunye nokubuyiswa kweekhemikhali ezisisiseko ukucinezela. uluvo lwemarike, i-bisphenol A kunye nongqamaniso lwemarike esezantsi ukuya ezantsi, ukusukela nge-31 kaMatshi, amaxabiso e-bisphenol A ukuya kutsho kuma-9300 yuan / ton.

1.2 Bisphenol A ibhalansi yobonelelo kunye nemfuno kwikota yokuqala

Kwikota yokuqala ye-2023, imeko ye-bisphenol A ye-bisphenol A iyabonakala.Ngeli xesha, i-Wanhua Chemical Phase II kunye ne-Guangxi Huayi BPA idibanise iitoni ze-440,000 / ngonyaka weeyunithi ezintsha zafakwa ekusebenzeni, kwaye umsebenzi wonke wawuzinzile, okwandisa ukuthengiswa kweemarike.I-Downstream epoxy resin ngokusisiseko iyafana nexesha elifanayo kulo nyaka uphelileyo, iPC kunye nomthamo omtsha wemveliso kunye nenqanaba lokuqalisa ishishini, ukukhula kokusetyenziswa malunga ne-30%, kodwa inqanaba lokukhula lokubonelela liphezulu kunenqanaba lokukhula kwemfuno, i-bisphenol. Umsantsa wobonelelo kunye nemfuno wande ukuya kutsho kwi-131,000 yeetoni kwikota yokuqala.

1.3 Ikota yephepha ledatha yokwenziwa kwetsheyini loshishino

Ikota ye-bisphenol A ehambelana noluhlu lweenkcukacha ezithe kratya nasezantsi

2.I-Bisphenol Uqikelelo lweshishini kwikota yesibini

2.1 Ubonelelo ngemveliso yekota yesibini kunye noqikelelo lwemfuno

2.1.1 Uqikelelo lwemveliso

Umthamo omtsha: kwikota yesibini, i-bisphenol yasekhaya Isixhobo asicaci kakuhle izicwangciso ezintsha zokuvelisa.Ukuchatshazelwa yimalike ebuthathaka kunye nengeniso yeshishini efunyenwe kakhulu, ezinye zezixhobo ezitsha zisebenza kunokuba zilindelwe kulibaziseka, ukusuka ekupheleni kwekota yesibini, umthamo wemveliso yasekhaya uwonke we-4,265,000 yeetoni / ngonyaka.

Ilahleko yesixhobo: ikota yesibini ye-bisphenol yasekhaya Isixhobo esisembindini, ngokutsho kophando lweLonzhong, ikota yesibini yohlengahlengiso oluqhelekileyo lweenkampani ezimbini, umthamo wokulungiswa kweetoni ezingama-190,000 / ngonyaka, ilahleko kulindeleke ukuba ibe malunga neetoni ezingama-32,000, kodwa isixhobo sangoku seCangzhou Dahua siyaqhubeka nokuyeka ngexesha lokuqalisa kwakhona ayaziwa, abavelisi beshishini lasekhaya ngempembelelo yezoqoqosho yeshishini lokwehla komthwalo (iChangchun Chemical, Shanghai Sinopec Mitsui, Nantong Xingchen, njl.), Ukulungiswa Ilahleko kulindeleke ukuba ibe yi-69,200. iitoni, ukwanda ngama-29.8% kwikota yokuqala.

Ukusetyenziswa kwamandla kwishishini: imveliso yasekhaya A kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwiitoni ezingama-867,700 kwikota yesibini, ukwehla okuncinci nge-0.30% xa kuthelekiswa nekota yokuqala, ukwanda kwe-54.12% xa kuthelekiswa no-2022. 2022 isiqingatha sesibini sekota yokuqala ka-2023 i-bisphenol yasekhaya Umthamo omtsha wemveliso, impembelelo yemarike ebuthathaka kwikota yokuqala yalo nyaka, amanye amashishini ukuze anciphise imveliso kunye nokunciphisa umsebenzi womthwalo, umyinge wokusetyenziswa kwamandla oshishino kulindeleke ukuba ufikelele kwi-73.78% kwikota yesibini. , ukunyuka konyaka nonyaka ngama-29.8%.Iya kufikelela kwi-73.78%, phantsi kwe-4.93 yeepesenti yeepesenti kwikota yangaphambili, phantsi kweepesenti ze-2 zeepesenti ngonyaka.

2.1.2 Uqikelelo olupheleleyo lokungenisa elizweni

I-China A imveliso evela kumazwe angaphandle kulindeleke ukuba ikhontrakthi kakhulu kwikota yesibini, kodwa isengumrhwebi ongenayo, ubukhulu becala inxalenye yasekhaya yorhwebo engenayo yokusebenza isekhona, kunye nabanye abavelisi inani elincinci lokurhweba ngaphandle korhwebo, umthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle. kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwiitoni ezingama-49,100.

2. 1.3 Uqikelelo losetyenziso olusezantsi

Kwikota yesibini, ukusetyenziswa kweemveliso ze-A e-China kulindeleke ukuba kufikelele kwiitoni ze-870,800, i-3.12% ye-YoY kunye ne-28.54% yoYY.Oku kungenxa yokuba: kwelinye icala, kukho izixhobo ezitsha ezicetywayo ukuba zisetyenziswe kwi-epoxy resin esezantsi, kunye nokunciphisa imveliso yeshishini kunye nokunciphisa umthwalo kwikota yokuqala ukuya kuluhlu, imveliso kulindeleke ukuba ikhule ikota yesibini;kwelinye icala, ukusebenza kwesixhobo soshishino lwePC kuzinzile, ngexesha apho izityalo zomntu ngamnye zimisa ukugcinwa, ukunciphisa umthwalo kunye nabanye abavelisi baphakamisa umthwalo kunye, kwaye imveliso kwikota yesibini kulindeleke ukuba ikhule malunga ne-2% YoY xa kuthelekiswa ne kwikota yokuqala.

2.2 Ikota yesibini yokunyuka kwamaxabiso emveliso kunye nefuthe kuqikelelo lwemveliso

Kwikota yesibini, inani leeyunithi zasekhaya ze-phenol acetone zicwangciselwe ukumisa ukuze zigcinwe, ngexesha apho iiyunithi ezintsha zicwangciselwe ukuba zibe kumgca, ukuvala unikezelo lulonke lonyuke kancinci xa kuthelekiswa nekota yokuqala.Kodwa njengoko i-bisphenol A esezantsi kunye nezinye i-downstream nazo zinezicwangciso zokulondoloza okanye zokunciphisa umthwalo, ngelixa kuthathelwa ingqalelo amaxabiso e-oyile eqinile, i-propylene ye-propylene multi-process industry ilahleko indawo ephantsi yemarike incinci, kunye notshintsho kwimfuno ye-terminal esezantsi, uqikelelo oluqikelelweyo. amaxabiso e-phenol acetone aqinile, amaxabiso e-phenol alindeleke ukuba ahluke kwi-7500-8300 yuan / ton, amaxabiso e-acetone aphakathi kwe-5800-6100 yuan / ton;inkxaso yeendleko ze-bisphenol A isekhona.

2.3 Uvavanyo lwengqondo lwemalike yekota yesibini

Kwikota yesibini, i-Bisphenol A izixhobo ezitsha azifumaneki, iiseti ezimbini zezixhobo zasekhaya ezicwangcisiweyo zokugcinwa, abanye abavelisi ngokubonelela ngemarike kunye nemfuno kunye noqoqosho olubi lwefuthe lokunciphisa imveliso yomthwalo okanye ukuqhubeka, ngexesha lokubonelela ngokubanzi kunye nebhalansi yemfuno IBisphenol A kulindeleke ukuba iphucule kwikota yokuqala, kodwa unikezelo lulonke lusanele, uninzi lwentengiso lulindeleke ukuba lube yiBisphenol A malunga nomgca weendleko unyuka usehla amathuba okuguquguquka, uninzi lwenjongo “yokubona ukusebenza okulumke ngakumbi. “.

2.4 Uqikelelo lwexabiso lemveliso yekota yesibini

Kwikota yesibini, ixabiso lemarike ye-bisphenol A kulindeleke ukuba litshintshe phakathi kwe-9000-9800 yuan / ton.Kwicala lokubonelela, ukubonelela kulindeleke ukuba kuncitshiswe kancinci xa kuthelekiswa nekota yokuqala ngenxa yempembelelo yokugcinwa kwezityalo kunye nenxalenye yomthwalo wokunciphisa imveliso, ukuchasana phakathi kokubonelela kunye nemfuno kwimarike kunekota yokugqibela okanye ukukhululeka, ixabiso. Umahluko phakathi kwemimandla kulindeleke ukuba ube mxinwa;kwicala lemfuno, i-epoxy resin ngesixhobo esitsha esifakwe ekusebenzeni kunye nokukhulula nje impembelelo yemveliso iyonke kulindeleke ukuba inyuke;Imveliso yePC kwikota yesibini kulindeleke ukuba inyuke kancinci, ilahle elicaba Shenma, isixhobo i-Hainan Huasheng kulindeleke ukuba siphinde siqalise imveliso okanye siphakamise umthwalo, abanye abavelisi ngabanye banezicwangciso zoHlolo, kunye nokuthathela ingqalelo impembelelo yeemarike ezilandelayo. ngaphandle kokunciphisa umthwalo onokwenzeka;ixabiso, i-phenol ketone ngexabiso lokugcinwa kwendawo enye yesixhobo kunye nefuthe elisisiseko lonikezelo kunye nemfuno, amaxabiso aqinile, ukuxhaswa kwe-bisphenol A kusekho;Ingqondo yemarike, kunye nekota yesibini yenguquko yesithinteli, isimo sengqondo semarike sisafumaneka.Isishwankathelo, unikezelo kunye nemfuno kunye neendleko, i-bisphenol A kulindeleke ukuba iqhube kuluhlu oluncinci lokuguquguquka.