1.1 Uhlalutyo lwentsingiselo ye-BPA yekota yokuqala

Kwikota yokuqala ye-2023, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo le-bisphenol A kwimarike ye-East China yayiyi-9,788 yuan / ton, -21.68% YoY, -44.72% YoY. 2023 NgoJanuwari-Februwari i-bisphenol A iyaguquguquka kumgca weendleko kwi-9,600-10,300 yuan / ton. Ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari, kunye nomoya woNyaka oMtsha waseTshayina, kunye nabavelisi abathile ngaphambi komthendeleko ukuvumela umgca wenzuzo, iziko lemarike lomxhuzulane lawela kwi-9,650 yuan / ton. Kwiiveki ezimbini ngaphambi nasemva koMnyhadala weNtwasahlobo, umsinga wokugcwalisa izikhundla, kwaye emva komthendeleko amaxabiso e-oyile enyuka aqhubela phambili ikhonkco loshishino phezulu, i-bisphenol A abavelisi abaphambili banikezela ukutsala phezulu, imarike yavuka, uthethathethwano lwaseMpuma China lutsale ukuya kuthi ga kwi-10200-10300 yuan / ton, uFebruwari ophambili wesivumelwano sokugaywa kwemveliso kunye nexabiso eliphantsi leentengiso ze-0ctuyu. Ukungena ngoMatshi, i-terminal imfuno yokubuyisela yayicotha, kwaye ukuchasana phakathi konikezelo kunye nemfuno kwiimarike kwagxininiswa, kunye neziganeko zomngcipheko wemali eYurophu kunye neebhanki zase-United States, ezikhokelela ekunciphiseni kwamaxabiso eoli ukucinezela ingqondo yemarike, umoya omfutshane wemarike wawucacile. Ukubuyiselwa kwesiphelo sesiphelo esisezantsi kuncinci kunoko bekulindelwe, umthwalo we-epoxy resin kuqala ukhuphuka kwaye emva koko uwe kwi-inventri, iziko lePC lobunzima lithambekile, unikezelo lwentengiso kunye nokuchasana kwemfuno kugxininisiwe, kudityaniswa neziganeko zengozi yezemali ezikhokelele kumaxabiso eoli kunye nokubuyiswa kweekhemikhali ezisisiseko ukucinezela imvakalelo yentengiso, i-bisphenol A kunye nentengiso ezantsi ungqamaniso lwentengiso ye-3 ukuya ezantsi, ukuba 9300 yuan / ton.

1.2 Bisphenol A ibhalansi yobonelelo kunye nemfuno kwikota yokuqala

Kwikota yokuqala ye-2023, imeko ye-bisphenol A ye-bisphenol A iyabonakala. Ngeli xesha, i-Wanhua Chemical Phase II kunye ne-Guangxi Huayi BPA idibanise iitoni ze-440,000 / ngonyaka weeyunithi ezintsha zafakwa ekusebenzeni, kwaye umsebenzi wonke wawuzinzile, okwandisa ukuthengiswa kweemarike. I-Downstream epoxy resin ngokusisiseko iyafana nexesha elifanayo kulo nyaka uphelileyo, iPC kunye nomthamo omtsha wemveliso kunye nezinga lokuqalisa ishishini, ukukhula kokusetyenziswa phantse kwe-30%, kodwa inqanaba lokukhula lokubonelela liphezulu kunenqanaba lokukhula kwemfuno, unikezelo lwe-bisphenol A kunye ne-gap yemfuno yandiswe ukuya kwiitoni ze-131,000 kwikota yokuqala.

1.3 Ikota yephepha ledatha yokwenziwa kwetsheyini loshishino

Ikota ye-bisphenol A ehambelana noluhlu lweenkcukacha ezithe kratya nasezantsi

2.I-Bisphenol Uqikelelo lweshishini kwikota yesibini

2.1 Ubonelelo ngemveliso yekota yesibini kunye noqikelelo lwemfuno

2.1.1 Uqikelelo lwemveliso

Umthamo omtsha: kwikota yesibini, i-bisphenol yasekhaya Isixhobo asicaci kakuhle izicwangciso ezintsha zokuvelisa. Ukuchatshazelwa yimalike ebuthathaka kunye nengeniso yeshishini efunyenwe kakhulu, ezinye zezixhobo ezitsha zisebenza kunokuba zilindelwe kulibaziseka, ukusuka ekupheleni kwekota yesibini, umthamo wemveliso yasekhaya uwonke we-4,265,000 yeetoni / ngonyaka.

Ilahleko yesixhobo: ikota yesibini ye-bisphenol yasekhaya Isixhobo esisembindini, ngokutsho kophando lweLonzhong, ikota yesibini yohlengahlengiso oluqhelekileyo lweenkampani ezimbini, umthamo wokulungiswa kweetoni ezingama-190,000 / ngonyaka, ilahleko kulindeleke ukuba ibe malunga neetoni ezingama-32,000, kodwa isixhobo sangoku seCangzhou Dahua siyaqhubeka nokuyeka, ngexesha lokuqalisa koqoqosho olungaziwayo lomenzi wemveliso yezoqoqosho. (Changchun Chemical, Shanghai Sinopec Mitsui, Nantong Xingchen, njl.), Ukulungiswa kwelahleko kulindeleke ukuba ibe yi-69,200 yeetoni, ukwanda kwe-29.8% kwikota yokuqala.

Ukusetyenziswa kwamandla kwishishini: imveliso yasekhaya A kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwiitoni ezingama-867,700 kwikota yesibini, ukuhla okuncinci kwe-0.30% xa kuthelekiswa nekota yokuqala, ukwanda kwe-54.12% xa kuthelekiswa no-2022. 2022 isiqingatha sesibini sekota yokuqala ye-2023 yekota yasekhaya i-bisphenol Amandla okusebenza obuthathaka kwikota yokuqala, impembelelo yemveliso ebuthathaka, ukungena kwimveliso ebuthathaka kunyaka wokuqala, ifuthe lemveliso yepri. umsebenzi womthwalo, umyinge wokusetyenziswa kwamandla oshishino kulindeleke ukuba ufikelele kwi-73.78% kwikota yesibini, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka wama-29.8%. Iya kufikelela kwi-73.78%, phantsi kwe-4.93 yeepesenti yeepesenti kwikota yangaphambili, phantsi kweepesenti ze-2 zeepesenti ngonyaka.

2.1.2 Uqikelelo olupheleleyo lokungenisa elizweni

China A ishishini ukungenisa kulindeleke ukuba ikhontrakthi kakhulu kwikota yesibini, kodwa kusekho umrhwebi net, ubukhulu becala inxalenye yasekhaya urhwebo olungenayo processing isekhona, kwakunye nabanye abavelisi isixa esincinane yorhwebo jikelele urhwebo, umthamo wokuthumela net kulindeleke ukuba ukufikelela 49,100 iitoni.

2. 1.3 Uqikelelo losetyenziso olusezantsi

Kwikota yesibini, ukusetyenziswa kweemveliso ze-A e-China kulindeleke ukuba kufikelele kwiitoni ze-870,800, i-3.12% ye-YoY kunye ne-28.54% yoYY. Oku kungenxa yokuba: kwelinye icala, kukho izixhobo ezitsha ezicetywayo ukuba zisetyenziswe kwi-epoxy resin esezantsi, kunye nokunciphisa imveliso yoshishino kunye nokunciphisa umthwalo kwikota yokuqala ukuya kwi-inventory, imveliso kulindeleke ukuba ikhule kwikota yesibini; kwelinye icala, ukusebenza isixhobo PC ishishini uzinzile ngokwentelekiso, ngexesha izityalo ngamnye ukuyeka ukugcinwa, ukunciphisa umthwalo kunye nabanye abavelisi ukuphakamisa umthwalo coexist, kunye nemveliso kwikota yesibini kulindeleke ukuba ikhule malunga 2% YoY xa kuthelekiswa nekota yokuqala.

2.2 Ikota yesibini yokunyuka kwamaxabiso emveliso kunye nefuthe kuqikelelo lwemveliso

Kwikota yesibini, inani leeyunithi zasekhaya ze-phenol acetone zicwangciselwe ukumisa ukuze zigcinwe, ngexesha apho iiyunithi ezintsha zicwangciselwe ukuba zibe kumgca, ukuvala unikezelo lulonke lonyuke kancinci xa kuthelekiswa nekota yokuqala. Kodwa njengoko i-bisphenol A esezantsi kunye nezinye iiplani zokunciphisa umthwalo, ngelixa kuthathelwa ingqalelo amaxabiso e-oyile eqinile, i-propylene ilahleko ye-propylene ye-multi-process industry ilahleko indawo ephantsi yemarike, kunye notshintsho kwimfuno ye-terminal esezantsi, ixabiso eliqikelelwayo le-phenol acetone liqina, amaxabiso ephenol kulindeleke ukuba afikelele kwi-7500000-800008 5800-6100 yuan / ton; inkxaso yeendleko ze-bisphenol A isekhona.

2.3 Uvavanyo lwengqondo lwemalike yekota yesibini

Kwikota yesibini, i-Bisphenol A izixhobo ezitsha azifumaneki, iiseti ezimbini zezixhobo zasekhaya ezicwangcisiweyo zokugcinwa, abanye abavelisi ngobonelelo lwemarike kunye nemfuno kunye noqoqosho olulambathayo lwempembelelo yomthwalo wokunciphisa imveliso okanye ukuqhubeka, ngexesha lokubonelela ngokubanzi kunye nebhalansi yemfuno ye-Bisphenol A kulindeleke ukuba iphucule kwikota yokuqala, kodwa unikezelo jikelele lusezanele, uninzi lwemarike kulindeleke ukuba iBisphenol inyuke kwaye ihle kakhulu kwinjongo yexabiso "jonga umsebenzi olumke ngakumbi".

2.4 Uqikelelo lwexabiso lemveliso yekota yesibini

Kwikota yesibini, ixabiso lemarike ye-bisphenol A kulindeleke ukuba litshintshe phakathi kwe-9000-9800 yuan / ton. Kwicala lokubonelela, ukubonelela kulindeleke ukuba kuncitshiswe kancinci xa kuthelekiswa nekota yokuqala ngenxa yempembelelo yokugcinwa kwezityalo kunye nenxalenye yomthwalo wokunciphisa imveliso, ukuchasana phakathi kokubonelela kunye nemfuno kwiimarike kunekota yokugqibela okanye ukukhululeka, umahluko wexabiso phakathi kwemimandla kulindeleke ukuba unciphise; kwicala lemfuno, i-epoxy resin ngesixhobo esitsha esifakwe ekusebenzeni kunye nokukhulula nje impembelelo yemveliso iyonke kulindeleke ukuba inyuke; Ukuveliswa kwePC kwikota yesibini kulindeleke ukuba kwandiswe kancinane, i-flat coal Shenma, i-Hainan Huasheng isixhobo kulindeleke ukuba iqalise kwakhona imveliso okanye iphakamise umthwalo, abanye abavelisi ngabanye banezicwangciso zokuHlola, kunye nokuqwalasela impembelelo yemarike elandelayo ayibandakanyi ithuba lokunciphisa umthwalo; ixabiso, i-phenol ketone ngexabiso lokugcinwa kwendawo enye yesixhobo kunye nefuthe elisisiseko lonikezelo kunye nemfuno, amaxabiso aqinile, ukuxhaswa kwe-bisphenol A kusekho; Ingqondo yemarike, kunye nekota yesibini yenguquko yesithinteli, isimo sengqondo semarike sisafumaneka. Isishwankathelo, unikezelo kunye nemfuno kunye neendleko, i-bisphenol A kulindeleke ukuba iqhube kuluhlu oluncinci lokuguquguquka.