Okwangoku, intengiso yeekhemikhali zaseTshayina ibhomboloza kuyo yonke indawo.Kwiinyanga ezili-10 ezidlulileyo, ezininzi iikhemikhali e-China zibonise ukuhla okukhulu.Ezinye iikhemikhali zehle ngaphezulu kwe-60%, ngelixa uninzi lweekhemikhali zehle nge-30%.Uninzi lweekhemikhali ziye zabetha amaxabiso amatsha kulo nyaka uphelileyo, ngelixa iikhemikhali ezimbalwa ziye zabetha kancinci kwiminyaka eyi-10 edlulileyo.Kunokuthiwa ukusebenza kwamva nje kwentengiso yeekhemikhali zaseTshayina kuye kwaba mfiliba kakhulu.
Ngokohlalutyo, ezona zizathu ziphambili zokuhla okuqhubekayo kweekhemikhali kunyaka ophelileyo zezi zilandelayo:
1. Ukucutheka kwemarike yabathengi, emelwe yi-United States, ibe nempembelelo enkulu ekusebenziseni imichiza yehlabathi.
Ngokutsho kwe-Agence France Presse, isalathisi solwazi lwabathengi e-United States sawela kwi-9-inyanga ephantsi kwikota yokuqala, kwaye amakhaya amaninzi alindele ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwezoqoqosho kuqhubeke nokuwohloka.Ukuhla kwesalathiso solwazi lwabathengi kudla ngokuthetha ukuba iinkxalabo malunga nokudodobala koqoqosho ziya zisiba mbi kakhulu, kwaye amakhaya amaninzi ayayinciphisa inkcitho yawo ukulungiselela ukuwohloka koqoqosho okuqhubekayo kwixesha elizayo.
Esona sizathu siphambili sokuhla kolwazi lwabathengi eUnited States kukuhla kwexabiso le-real estate.Oko kukuthi, ixabiso le-real estate e-United States sele liphantsi kunomlinganiselo wemali mboleko ye-mortgage, kwaye i-real estate iye yatshona.Kwaba bantu, baqina amabhanti abo kwaye baqhubeke behlawula amatyala abo, okanye bancame iindawo zabo zokuhlala ukuze bayeke ukuhlawula imali mboleko yabo, ebizwa ngokuba yi-foreclosure.Uninzi lwabaviwa bakhetha ukuqinisa amabhanti abo ukuze baqhubeke nokuhlawula amatyala, nto leyo icinezela ngokucacileyo imarike yabathengi.
IUnited States yeyona marike inkulu yehlabathi yabathengi.Ngo-2022, i-US iyonke yemveliso yasekhaya yayingama-22.94 eebhiliyoni zeedola, iseyeyona inkulu ehlabathini.Abantu baseMelika banomvuzo wonyaka omalunga ne-50000 yeedola kunye nexabiso lentengiso yehlabathi liphela malunga ne-5.7 yetriliyoni.Ukucotha kwimarike yabathengi base-US kube nempembelelo enkulu kakhulu ekwehleni kwemveliso kunye nokusetyenziswa kweekhemikhali, ngakumbi kwiikhemikhali ezithunyelwa ngaphandle zisuka eTshayina zisiya eMelika.
2. Uxinzelelo loqoqosho olukhulu oluziswe kukudodobala kwemarike yabathengi base-US kutsalele phantsi ukudodobala koqoqosho lwehlabathi.
Ingxelo ye-Global Economic Prospects esandula kukhutshwa yi-Global Economic Prospects ithobe ingqikelelo yohlumo loqoqosho lwehlabathi ngowama-2023 ukuya kutsho kwi-1.7%, ukwehla nge-1.3% ukusuka kuqikelelo lukaJuni wama-2020 kunye nenqanaba lesithathu elona liphantsi kule minyaka ingama-30 idlulileyo.Ingxelo ibonisa ukuba ngenxa yeemeko ezifana nokunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso enzala, ukunciphisa utyalo-mali, kunye nongquzulwano lwezelizwe, ukukhula koqoqosho lwehlabathi kuncipha ngokukhawuleza ukuya kwinqanaba eliyingozi elisondele ekwehleni.
Umongameli weBhanki yeHlabathi uMaguire uthe uqoqosho lwehlabathi lujongene “nengxaki ekhulayo kuphuhliso” kwaye ukusilela kwimpumelelo yehlabathi kungaqhubeka.Njengoko ukukhula koqoqosho lwehlabathi kuncipha, uxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso e-United States luyakhula, kwaye uxinzelelo lwamatyala luyanda, oluye lwaba nefuthe elibi kwimarike yabathengi behlabathi.
3. Unikezelo lweekhemikhali zaseChina luyaqhubeka lukhula, kwaye uninzi lweekhemikhali zijongene nokuchasana kwemfuno yokubonelela.
Ukusukela ekupheleni kuka-2022 ukuya embindini ka-2023, iiprojekthi ezininzi zeekhemikhali ezinkulu e-China zaqaliswa ukusebenza.Ekupheleni kuka-Agasti ka-2022, i-Zhejiang Petrochemical yayifake i-1.4 yezigidi zeetoni zezityalo ze-ethylene ngonyaka, kunye nokuxhasa izityalo ze-ethylene ezisezantsi;NgoSeptemba 2022, iProjekthi ye-Lianyungang Petrochemical Ethane yafakwa ekusebenzeni kwaye ixhotyiswe ngezixhobo ezisezantsi;Ekupheleni kukaDisemba ka-2022, iprojekthi ehlanganisiweyo ye-Shenghong yokuRefining kunye neChemical's ezizigidi ezili-16 zeetoni iye yaqalisa ukusebenza, yongeza intaphane yeemveliso zemichiza emitsha;NgoFebruwari 2023, i-Hainan yezigidi zeetoni ze-ethylene plant yafakwa ekusebenzeni, kwaye iprojekthi edibeneyo exhasayo esezantsi yafakwa ekusebenzeni;Ekupheleni kwe-2022, isityalo se-ethylene saseShanghai Petrochemical siya kusetyenziswa.NgoMeyi ka-2023, iprojekthi ye-TDI ye-Wanhua Chemical Group Fujian Industrial Park iya kuqaliswa ukusebenza.
Kulo nyaka uphelileyo, i-China iye yaphehlelela iiprojekthi ezininzi zeekhemikhali ezinkulu, inyusa unikezelo lwentengiso yeekhemikhali ezininzi.Phantsi kwemarike yabathengi eyonqenayo yangoku, ukukhula kwecala lokubonelela kwintengiso yeekhemikhali zaseTshayina kukwakhawulezisile ukuchasana kwemfuno yobonelelo kwimarike.
Lilonke, esona sizathu siphambili sokuhla kwexesha elide kumaxabiso emveliso yeekhemikhali kukusetyenziswa kancinci kwintengiso yezizwe ngezizwe, okukhokelele ekwehleni kwesikali sokuthumela ngaphandle kweemveliso zemichiza yaseTshayina.Ngokwale mbono, kunokubonwa kwakhona ukuba ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwemarike yempahla yabathengi yokugqibela kuyacutheka, ukuchasana kwemfuno yonikezelo kwimarike yabathengi baseTshayina kuya kukhokelela ekujongeni phantsi kwamaxabiso emveliso yeekhemikhali zasekhaya.Ukuhla kwamaxabiso eemarike zamazwe ngamazwe kuqhubele phambili ukwakheka kobuthathaka kwimarike yemichiza yaseTshayina, oko kumisela indlela ehlayo.Ke ngoko, isiseko samaxabiso entengiso kunye nebenchmark yeemveliso ezininzi zemichiza eTshayina zisathintelwa yintengiso yamazwe ngamazwe, kwaye ishishini lemichiza laseTshayina lisanyanzelwa ziimarike zangaphandle kulo mba.Ke, ukuze kupheliswe phantse unyaka omnye wokuhla, ukongeza ekulungiseni unikezelo lwayo, iyakuthembela ngakumbi ekubuyiseni uqoqosho olukhulu lweemarike ezijikelezayo.