Iiacrylonitrileishishini lingenise umjikelo wokukhupha umthamo ngo-2022, amandla akhula ngaphezulu kwe-10% unyaka nonyaka kunye nokunyusa uxinzelelo lobonelelo.Ngelo xesha, sibona ukuba icala lemfuno alilungile njengoko lifanele ukuba libe ngenxa yesibetho, kwaye ishishini lilawulwa yi-downtrend, kunye neendawo ezikhanyayo ezinzima ukuzifumana.

Umthombo wedatha: Goldlink

Imarike ye-acrylonitrile yasekhaya kwisiqingatha sokuqala se-2022 ibonise ukuhla kokuqala okulandelwa luluhlu olubanzi lwe-oscillation elawulwayo.Ukuthatha i-East China market njengomzekelo, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo kwisiqingatha sokuqala se-2022 lalikwi-RMB 11,455 / ton, phantsi kwe-21.29% ngonyaka, kunye nexabiso eliphezulu le-RMB 13,100 / ton, eyenzeka ngoJanuwari, kwaye eyona ndawo iphantsi ye-RMB 10,800/ton, eyenzeka ngoJuni.

Izinto eziphambili ezichaphazela imarike zezi.

I. Ukwandiswa kwezibonelelo.I-2022 isengunyaka wokwandiswa kwe-acrylonitrile yasekhaya egxininisiweyo, ukubeka ekusebenzeni iiseti ze-2 zezityalo ze-acrylonitrile ezinomthamo opheleleyo we-390,000 yeetoni / ngonyaka, kuquka i-Lihua Yi 260,000 yeetoni / ngonyaka kunye ne-Tianchen Qixiang 130,000 yeetoni / ngonyaka.Nangona umthamo wokuthumela impahla kumazwe angaphandle unyuke nge-12.1% unyaka nonyaka ukusuka kuJanuwari ukuya kuMeyi, unikezelo kunye nemfuno zisathande ukukhula ngokukhululeka.

Okwesibini, ukuvela kwakhona kwalo bhubhani kwakhokelela ekwandeni koxinzelelo kuluhlu lwempahla yemizi-mveliso.Ukusukela ekungeneni kuka-2022 ibisoloko ikwinqanaba lokuthengiselana ngokugqithisileyo, amashishini kunye noluhlu lwempahla lwentlalo lukhawulezise ukuqokelelwa emva kwempembelelo yokuqhambuka kwavulwa ekupheleni kwekota yokuqala, izinto e-East China kunye neShandong ziye zayeka, kwaye bekukho indawo enkulu. yokunciphisa umlambo kunye nokuvalwa, emva kokunciphisa imfuno, uxinzelelo lwe-inventory ye-acrylonitrile yefektri iye yanda, iqhubekile ukunciphisa umgaqo-nkqubo wokunyusa amaxabiso.

Okwesithathu, ukukhula kweemfuno zeshishini elisezantsi kulinganiselwe.I-150,000 yeetoni / ngonyaka wesityalo esitsha se-LG Huizhou yongezwa kwi-ABS kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2022, kusetyenziswa kuphela iitoni ezingama-37,500 / ngonyaka we-acrylonitrile yezinto eziluhlaza, ngoko ke ukukhula komthamo osezantsi kungaphantsi kokukhula kwezinto eziluhlaza, ngoko ke ukuvulwa okuqhelekileyo. izityalo ze-acrylonitrile kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka sisondele kwi-80%, ebonisa ukuba uxinzelelo lokuthengisa izityalo.

Kwisiqingatha sesibini sika-2022, imakethi ye-acrylonitrile yaseChina iya kuqhubeka nenqanaba eliphantsi le-oscillation, kwaye indawo yohlengahlengiso ngokubanzi ilinganiselwe.Ukongeza, i-acrylonitrile amandla okuvelisa amatsha anyuke kakhulu kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, kwaye isixa sempahla enikezelweyo sinokuqhubeka nokunyuka.Nangona kunjalo, i-ABS esezantsi kuphela kulindeleke ukuba ibe nezixhobo ezitsha ezifakwe ekusebenzeni, imfuno iyonke ilinganiselwe, phantsi kokungalingani phakathi konikezelo kunye nemfuno, ukubonelela nge-acrylonitrile kunye nokuchasana kwemfuno kuya kuqhubeka nokunyuka, xa ukuvulwa kwefektri kunzima ukuphucula, kukhulu. amashishini amandla aya kuthenga amanyathelo angalunganga.Ekubeni i-acrylonitrile ininzi phantsi komgca weendleko, kusafuneka ukuba ubeke ingqalelo kwindlela yepropylene ekrwada.Amaxabiso e-ex-factory (amaxabiso emarike) kulindeleke ukuba abe kuluhlu lwe-RMB 10,000-12,000 / mt kwimimandla ephambili, kunye nenqaku eliphezulu mhlawumbi lenzeke ngo-Agasti.

Kwimakethi ye-acrylonitrile yaseTshayina kwisiqingatha sesibini sika-2022, ipropylene ye-feedstock yeyona nto inempembelelo yokuguquguquka kwexabiso.Ekubeni ukwanda okubalulekileyo komthamo wemveliso kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka sisigqibo esingaphambili, kunzima ukuba nethuba elibalulekileyo lokubuyisela ixabiso kwisiqingatha sesibini.Ngoko ke, ixabiso lepropylene yezinto eziluhlaza liya kuba yinto ephambili yokumisela ixabiso le-acrylonitrile.Ukuba ipropylene ihlala kufuphi ne-RMB 8,000 / mt, kuya kuba nzima ukuba i-acrylonitrile iqhubeke nokuwa.Nangona kunjalo, ukuba ixabiso lepropylene liyaqhubeka nokuwa, ixabiso le-acrylonitrile liya kuba nethuba lokuhla phantsi koxinzelelo lokugqithiswa.

Ukususela kwi-2022 ukuya kwi-2023, i-China iya kwongeza i-1.38 yezigidi zeetoni / ngonyaka wezityalo ze-acrylonitrile, kwaye ezininzi zazo zisulungekisa kunye nezixhobo ezixhasayo ezidityanisiweyo zeekhemikhali, ezinokuthi zisetyenziswe.Nangona kunjalo, ezantsi komlambo kuphela yi-ABS ekhula ngokukhawuleza, njenge-acrylics kunye ne-acrylamide zikwimeko edikidiki, eya kuthi ngokuqinisekileyo yenze imeko yokubonelela ngokugqithisileyo.Kulindeleke ukuba kwiminyaka emithathu ezayo, kunye nokwandiswa komthamo we-acrylonitrile, inzuzo yoshishino iyancipha, kwaye ezinye zofakelo olutsha zijongene nethuba lokulibaziseka kunye neshelufu.

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