1,Isishwankathelo semveliso yentengiso ye-octanol kunye nobudlelwane bemfuno yokubonelela ngo-2023

Ngo-2023, iphenjelelwa zizinto ezahlukeneyo, iioktanoliishishini lifumene ukwehla kwimveliso kunye nokwandiswa komsantsa wemfuno yobonelelo.Ukuvela rhoqo kwezixhobo zokupaka kunye nokugcinwa kwezixhobo kuye kwakhokelela ekunyuseni okungalunganga konyaka kwimveliso yasekhaya, into enqabileyo kwiminyaka emininzi.Kuqikelelwa ukuba imveliso yonyaka iyonke yi-2.3992 yezigidi zeetoni, ukuhla kweetoni ezingama-78600 ukusuka ku-2022. Izinga lokusetyenziswa komthamo wemveliso liye lehla, ukusuka kwi-100% ngo-2022 ukuya kwi-95.09%.

Ukususela kumandla okuvelisa imveliso, ebalwa ngokusekelwe kumthamo woyilo we-2.523 yezigidi zeetoni, amandla okuvelisa ngokwenene angaphezulu kweli nani.Nangona kunjalo, ukwanda kweendawo ezintsha zemveliso kuye kwakhokelela ekwandeni kwesiseko somthamo wemveliso, ngelixa izixhobo ezitsha ezifana neZibo Nuo Ao zaqala imveliso kuphela ekupheleni konyaka, kunye nokukhululwa komthamo wemveliso eBaichuan, eNingxia ihlehlisiwe. kude kube ekuqaleni kwe-2024. Oku kuye kwakhokelela ekunciphiseni izinga lomthwalo wokusebenza kwishishini le-octanol kwi-2023 kunye nelahleko kwimveliso.

2Uhlalutyo olunzulu lonikezelo kunye nobudlelwane bemfuno ye-octanol

1. Ukwehla kwemveliso kunye nesithuba semfuno yokubonelela: Nangona ukuveliswa kwamaziko amatsha kuye kwalibaziseka kwaye ezinye izakhiwo ezihlaziyiweyo azizange zisetyenziswe njengoko bekucwangcisiwe, ukukhula okuthe gqolo kweemfuno ezisezantsi kwaqala ukuvela emva kwekota yesine, ukubonelela ngenkxaso imarike ye-octanol.Ukususela ngoJulayi ukuya kuSeptemba, ngenxa yolondolozo oluphakathi, unikezelo lwehla kakhulu, ngelixa ukunyuka kwemfuno kukhokelele ekunyukeni kwinqanaba elibi le-gap yemfuno yokubonelela.

2.Uhlalutyo oluphambili lwemfuno esezantsi: Ukuthandwa kwemarike ye-plasticizer kuphinde kwaphindaphinda, kwaye imfuno iyonke ibonisa ukunyuka.Ukusuka kunikezelo kunye nemfuno yeemveliso ezinkulu ezisezantsi ezifana ne-DOP, i-DOTP, kunye ne-isooctyl acrylate, kunokubonwa ukuba ukunikezelwa kwe-DOP kuyanda kakhulu, kunye nokunyuka kwemveliso ye-6%, okwenza igalelo elikhulu ekukhuleni kwe-octanol. ukusetyenziswa.Ukuveliswa kwe-DOTP kwehle malunga ne-2%, kodwa kukho ukuguquguquka okuncinci kwimfuno yokwenene yokusetyenziswa kwe-octanol.Imveliso ye-isooctyl acrylate inyuke nge-4%, ekwanegalelo ekukhuleni kokusetyenziswa kwe-octanol.

I-3.Ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso ezinto ezibonakalayo: Ukunikezelwa kwepropylene kuqhubeka nokunyuka, kodwa ixabiso layo liye lawa kakhulu, ukwandisa i-gap ngexabiso le-octanol.Oku kunciphisa uxinzelelo lweendleko kwishishini le-octanol, kodwa kwakhona kubonisa ukungafani kwindlela yokusebenza ephezulu kunye nezantsi.

3,Imbonakalo yemarike yexesha elizayo kunye nokungaqiniseki komthamo omtsha wemveliso

I-1.Ubonelelo lwecala lokubonelela: Kulindeleke ukuba ukukhululwa komthamo omtsha wokuvelisa kuya kujongana nokungaqiniseki kwi-2024. Kulindeleke ukuba uninzi lwezixhobo zokwandisa i-Anqing Shuguang kunye nezixhobo ezintsha ze-satellite petrochemical zingadinga ukukhutshwa kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka. ukuya ekupheleni konyaka.Izixhobo zokuhlaziya ze-Shandong Jianlan zinokulibaziseka de kube sekupheleni konyaka, okwenza kube nzima ukukhulula amandla okubonelela nge-octanol kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka.Ngenxa yezinto ezifana nokugcinwa kwentwasahlobo, kulindeleke ukuba i-octanol iya kuqhubeka isebenza ngamandla kwisiqingatha sokuqala se-2024.

I-2.Ukunyusa okulindelweyo kwicala lemfuno: Ukusuka kwimbono enkulu kunye ne-cyclical, imfuno ephantsi komlambo kulindeleke ukuba inyuswe kwixesha elizayo.Oku kuya kumanyanisa ngakumbi ipateni ye-octanol yemfuno yonikezelo olungqingqwa kwaye yandise amathuba okuba imarike isebenze kwinqanaba eliphakathi ukuya phezulu.Kulindeleke ukuba imeko yentengiso ngo-2024 ibonise umgangatho ophezulu ngaphambili kwaye usezantsi ngasemva.Kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, ngokukhutshwa kwamandla okuvelisa amatsha kunikezelo lweemarike kunye nokulindela ukuhla komjikelo kwimfuno esezantsi, icala lexabiso linokujongana nohlengahlengiso oluthile.

I-3.Umthamo wexesha elizayo kunye nokuhla kwengqwalasela yemarike: Kwiminyaka ezayo, imveliso ecwangcisiweyo yeeyunithi ezininzi ze-octanol iya kugxila ngakumbi.Kwangaxeshanye, ukwandiswa kweemfuno ezisezantsi kucotha noko, kwaye imeko yentsalela yeshishini iya kuba qatha.Kulindeleke ukuba ugxininiso olupheleleyo lwe-octanol luza kuncipha kwixesha elizayo, kwaye i-amplitude yemarike inokuncipha.

4.Inkangeleko yamaxabiso eemveliso zehlabathi: Kulindeleke ukuba ukuhla kwamaxabiso eemveliso zehlabathi kuthothe ngo-2024. Kusenokubakho umjikelo omtsha wemarike yeenkunzi zemveliso, kodwa lo mjikelo wemarike yenkomo usenokuba buthathaka.Ukuba iziganeko ezingalindelekanga zenzeka ngexesha lenkqubo yokubuyisela uqoqosho, amaxabiso eemveliso anokulungelelanisa.

Ngokubanzi, imarike ye-octanol ijongene nemingeni yokunciphisa imveliso kunye nokwandisa izithuba zemfuno yokubonelela ngo-2023. Nangona kunjalo, ukukhula okuzinzileyo kweemfuno ezisezantsi kunikeze inkxaso kwimarike.Ukujonga phambili, kulindeleke ukuba imarike iya kuqhubeka igcina indlela yokusebenza eqinile, kodwa inokujongana noxinzelelo lohlengahlengiso kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka.

Ukujonga phambili ukuya ku-2024, umgangatho wehlabathi wokuhla kwexabiso leemveliso unokucotha, kwaye amaxabiso ngokubanzi aya kubonisa ukunyuka okunyukayo ngo-2024. Kusenokubakho omnye umjikelo wemarike yenkomo yemveliso, kodwa inqanaba lemarike yenkomo lisenokuba buthathaka.Ukuba ezinye iziganeko ezingalindelekanga zenzeka ngexesha lenkqubo yokubuyisela uqoqosho, amaxabiso eemveliso nawo kusenokwenzeka ukuba ehle kwaye alungelelanise.Kulindeleke ukuba uluhlu olusebenzayo lwe-Jiangsu octanol luya kuba phakathi kwe-11500-14000 yuan / ton, kunye nexabiso eliqhelekileyo lonyaka le-12658 yuan / ton.Kulindeleke ukuba ixabiso eliphantsi le-octanol unyaka wonke liya kubonakala kwikota yesine, kwi-11500 yuan / ton;Ixabiso eliphezulu lonyaka libonakala kwikota yesibini neyesithathu, kwi-14000 yuan / ton.Kulindeleke ukuba ukusuka kwi-2025 ukuya kwi-2026, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lonyaka le-octanol kwimarike ye-Jiangsu iya kuba yi-10000 yuan / ton kunye ne-9000 yuan / ton, ngokulandelanayo.