Kutshanje, iimveliso ezininzi zemichiza eTshayina ziye zafumana inqanaba elithile lokunyuka, kwaye ezinye iimveliso zifumana ukonyuka okungaphezulu kwe-10%. Oku kukulungiswa kwempindezelo emva kokuhla okunyukayo malunga nonyaka kwinqanaba lokuqala, kwaye akuzange kulungiswe indlela yonke yokuhla kweemarike. Kwixesha elizayo, imarike yemveliso yeekhemikhali yaseTshayina iya kuhlala ibuthathaka ixesha elide.
I-Octanol isebenzisa i-acrylic acid kunye negesi ye-synthesis njengezinto eziluhlaza, i-vanadium njenge-catalyst yokuvelisa i-butyraldehyde edibeneyo, apho i-n-butyraldehyde kunye ne-Isobutyraldehyde zicocwa ukuze kufumaneke i-n-butyraldehyde kunye ne-isobutyraldehyde, kwaye ke imveliso ye-octanol ifunyenwe ngokusebenzisa i-shrinkage kunye nezinye iinkqubo ze-hydrogenation. I-downstream isetyenziswa kakhulu kwintsimi yeeplastiki, ezifana ne-dioctyl terephthalate, i-dioctyl Phthalic acid, i-isooctyl acrylate, njl. I-TOM/DOA kunye nezinye iindawo.
Imarike yaseTshayina inezinga eliphezulu lokuqwalaselwa kwe-octanol. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuveliswa kwe-octanol kuhamba kunye nokuveliswa kweemveliso ezifana ne-butanol, eyoluhlu lweemveliso kunye nefuthe elibanzi lemarike; Ngakolunye uhlangothi, njengemveliso ebalulekileyo yeeplastiki, inefuthe elithe ngqo kwimarike yabathengi beplastiki esezantsi.
Kunyaka ophelileyo, imarike ye-octanol yaseTshayina iye yafumana ukuguquguquka okukhulu kwexabiso, ukusuka kwi-8650 yuan/toni ukuya kwi-10750 yuan/toni, kunye noluhlu lwe-24.3%. NgoJuni 9, 2023, elona xabiso liphantsi laliyi-8650 yuan/toni, kwaye elona xabiso liphezulu laliyi-10750 yuan/toni nge-3 kaFebruwari ka-2023.
Kunyaka odlulileyo, ixabiso lemarike ye-octanol liye laguquguquka kakhulu, kodwa ubuninzi be-amplitude yi-24% kuphela, ephantsi kakhulu kunokuhla kwemarike eqhelekileyo. Ukongeza, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo kunyaka odlulileyo laliyi-9500 yuan / ton, kwaye ngoku imarike igqithise ixabiso eliqhelekileyo, elibonisa ukuba ukusebenza ngokubanzi kweemarike kunamandla kunomgangatho oqhelekileyo kunyaka odlulileyo.
Umzobo 1: Ixabiso leNtengiso ye-Octanol Market e-China kunyaka odlulileyo (Iyunithi: RMB / ton)

Okwangoku, ngenxa yexabiso elinamandla lemarike ye-octanol, inzuzo yemveliso yonke ye-octanol iqinisekiswa ukuba ikwizinga eliphezulu. Ngokwefomula yeendleko zepropylene, imarike ye-octanol yaseTshayina igcine umda ophezulu wenzuzo kunyaka odlulileyo. Umyinge wengeniso yengeniso yeshishini lemarike ye-octanol yaseTshayina yi-29%, kunye nomda wenzuzo ephezulu ojikeleze i-40% kunye nenzuzo encinci ye-17%, ukusuka kuMatshi ka-2022 ukuya kuJuni ka-2023.
Kuyabonakala ukuba nangona amaxabiso emarike ehlile, imveliso ye-octanol isekwinqanaba eliphezulu. Xa kuthelekiswa nezinye iimveliso, inqanaba lenzuzo yemveliso ye-octanol e-China liphezulu kunomgangatho ophakathi wemveliso yeekhemikhali ezininzi.
Umzobo 2: Utshintsho lweNzuzo yeOctanol eChina kuNyaka odlulileyo (Iyunithi: RMB/ton)

Izizathu zenqanaba eliphezulu lengeniso yemveliso ye-octanol ngolu hlobo lulandelayo:
Okokuqala, ukuhla kweendleko zemathiriyeli ekrwada kukhulu kakhulu kunoko kwe-octanol. Ngokwezibalo, ipropylene e-China yehla nge-14.9% ukususela ngo-Oktobha 2022 ukuya kuJuni 2023, ngelixa ixabiso le-octanol linyuke nge-0.08%. Ke ngoko, ukuhla kweendleko zemathiriyeli ekrwada kukhokelele kwinzuzo eyongezelelekileyo yemveliso ye-octanol, ekwasisizathu esibalulekileyo sokuqinisekisa ukuba inzuzo ye-octanol ihlala iphezulu.
Ukususela ngo-2009 ukuya ku-2023, ukuguquguquka kwexabiso lepropylene kunye ne-octanol e-China kubonisa indlela ehambelanayo, kodwa imarike ye-octanol yayine-amplitude enkulu kwaye ukuguquguquka kwemarike yepropylene kwakunokugcinwa. Ngokovavanyo oluchanekileyo lwedatha, iqondo elifanelekileyo lokuguquguquka kwexabiso kwiimarike zepropylene kunye ne-octanol yi-68.8%, kwaye kukho ulungelelwaniso oluthile phakathi kwezi zibini, kodwa ukulungelelaniswa buthathaka.
Ukusuka kulo mzobo ungezantsi, kunokubonwa ukuba ukusukela ngoJanuwari ka-2009 ukuya kuDisemba ka-2019, intsingiselo yokuguquguquka kunye ne-amplitude yepropylene kunye ne-octanol yayihambelana ngokusisiseko. Ukususela kwidatha efanelekileyo ngeli xesha, ukulungelelaniswa phakathi kwezi zibini zijikeleze i-86%, ebonisa ukulungelelaniswa okuqinileyo. Kodwa ukusukela ngo-2020, i-octanol iye yanda kakhulu, eyahluke kakhulu kwindlela yokuguquguquka kwepropylene, esona sizathu siphambili sokuncipha kokufaneleka phakathi kwezi zimbini.
Ukususela ngo-2009 ukuya kuJuni ka-2023, ixabiso lexabiso le-octanol kunye nepropylene e-China liye laguquguquka (iyunithi: RMB/ton)

Okwesibini, kwiminyaka yakutshanje, umthamo omtsha wemveliso kwimakethi ye-octanol e-China ulinganiselwe. Ngokutsho kwedatha echaphazelekayo, ukususela ngo-2017, akukho zixhobo ezintsha ze-octanol e-China, kwaye umthamo wemveliso jikelele uhlala uzinzile. Kwelinye icala, ukwandiswa kwesikali se-octanol kufuna ukuthatha inxaxheba kwiGesi yegesi, ethintela amashishini amatsha amaninzi. Kwelinye icala, ukukhula okucothayo kweemakethi zabathengi ezisezantsi kukhokelele kwicala lokubonelela kwimakethi ye-octanol engaqhutywa yimfuno.
Kwisiseko sokuba amandla emveliso ye-octanol yaseTshayina ayinyuki, umoya wokubonelela kunye nemfuno kwimakethi ye-octanol iye yancipha, kwaye iingxabano zemarike azibalulekanga, nto leyo ixhasa inzuzo yemveliso yemarike ye-octanol.
Ixabiso lemakethi ye-octanol ukusukela ngo-2009 ukuza kuthi ga ngoku liye laguquguquka ukusuka kwi-4956 yuan/toni ukuya kwi-17855 yuan/toni, kunye noluhlu olukhulu lokuguquguquka, okukwabonisa ukungaqiniseki okukhulu kwamaxabiso emarike ye-octanol. Ukususela ngo-2009 ukuya kuJuni ka-2023, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo le-octanol kwimarike yaseTshayina yayisuka kwi-9300 yuan/ton ukuya kwi-9800 yuan/toni. Ukuvela kwamanqaku amaninzi e-inflection kwixesha elidlulileyo kukwabonisa inkxaso okanye ukuchaswa kwexabiso eliphakathi kwe-octanol ukuguquguquka kweemarike.
NgoJuni ka-2023, i-avareji yexabiso lemarike ye-octanol e-China yayiyi-9300 ye-yuan ngetoni nganye, ephakathi koluhlu lwamaxabiso emarike kwiminyaka eli-13 edlulileyo. Indawo ephantsi yembali yexabiso yi-5534 yuan / ton, kunye ne-inflection point yi-9262 yuan / ton. Oko kukuthi, ukuba ixabiso lemakethi ye-octanol iyaqhubeka nokuhla, indawo ephantsi ingaba yinqanaba lokuxhasa le ndlela ehlayo. Ngokubuyela kwakhona kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ixabiso le-avareji yembali ye-9800 yuan/toni inokuba linqanaba lokumelana nokunyuka kwexabiso.
Ukususela ngo-2009 ukuya ku-2023, ixabiso le-octanol e-China liye laguquguquka (iyunithi: RMB/ton)


Ngo-2023, i-China iya kongeza isethi entsha yezixhobo ze-octanol, eziya kuphula irekhodi yokungabikho kwezixhobo ezintsha ze-octanol kwiminyaka embalwa edlulileyo kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ikhulise i-hype atmosphere engalunganga kwimarike ye-octanol. Ngaphezu koko, ngokulindela ubuthathaka bexesha elide kwimarike yeekhemikhali, kulindeleke ukuba amaxabiso e-octanol e-China aya kuhlala ebuthathaka ixesha elide, elinokuthi libeke uxinzelelo oluthile kwinzuzo kwizinga eliphezulu.