1, Uhlalutyo lwendlela yemarike yebenzene esulungekileyo

Kutshanje, imarike yebenzene esulungekileyo izuze ukonyuka kabini ngokulandelelanayo phakathi evekini, kunye neenkampani zepetrochemical eMpuma China zithe gqolo ukulungisa amaxabiso, ngokunyuka okunyukayo kwe-350 yuan/ton ukuya kwi-8850 yuan/ton. Ngaphandle kokunyuka okuncinci kwi-inventory kwi-East China port ukuya kwi-54000 tons ngoFebruwari 2024, ixabiso le-benzene ecocekileyo lihlala liqinile. Yintoni ebangela oku?

Okokuqala, siqaphele ukuba iimveliso ezisezantsi zebenzene ecocekileyo, ngaphandle kwe-caprolactam kunye ne-aniline, zifumene ilahleko enkulu. Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yokucotha kokulandelelwa kwamaxabiso e-benzene, inzuzo yeemveliso ezisezantsi kwingingqi yeShandong ilungile. Oku kubonisa ukungafani kweemarike kunye nezicwangciso zokuphendula kwimimandla eyahlukeneyo.

Okwesibini, ukusebenza kwe-benzene ecocekileyo kwimarike yangaphandle kuhlala kuqinile, kunozinzo olubonakalayo kunye nokuguquguquka okuncinci ngexesha loMnyhadala waseNtwasahlobo. Ixabiso le-FOB eMzantsi Korea lihlala kwi-1039 yeedola ngeetoni, ezisekho malunga ne-150 yuan / toni ephezulu kunexabiso lasekhaya. Ixabiso le-BZN liye lahlala kwinqanaba eliphezulu, lidlula i-$ 350 ngetoni. Ukongeza, imakethi yokuhanjiswa kweoyile yaseNyakatho Melika yafika ngaphambili kuneminyaka edlulileyo, ikakhulu ngenxa yokungahambi kakuhle kwezinto zokuhamba ePanama kunye nokuncipha kwemveliso okubangelwa yimozulu ebanda kakhulu kwisigaba sokuqala.

Nangona kukho uxinzelelo kwinzuzo ebanzi kunye nokusebenza kwebenzene ecocekileyo ezantsi, kwaye kukho ukunqongophala konikezelo lwebenzene esulungekileyo, ingxelo engeyiyo malunga nenzuzo esezantsi ayikaqalisi ukuvalwa komgangatho omkhulu. Oku kubonisa ukuba imakethi isafuna ibhalansi, kunye ne-benzene ecocekileyo, njengesixhobo esibalulekileyo sekhemikhali ekrwada, uxinzelelo lwayo lokubonelela lusaqhubeka.

umfanekiso

2, Umbono kwiindlela zentengiso ye-toluene

Ngomhla we-19 kaFebruwari, ngo-2024, ekupheleni kweholide yoMnyhadala weNtwasahlobo, imakethi ye-toluene yayinomoya owomeleleyo. Iingcaphuno zemarike eMpuma naseMzantsi China ziye zanda zombini, ngokunyuka kwexabiso eliphakathi ukuya kwi-3.68% kunye ne-6.14%, ngokulandelanayo. Lo mkhwa ubangelwa kukudityaniswa okuphezulu kwamaxabiso eoli ekrwada ngexesha loMnyhadala weNtwasahlobo, ukuxhasa ngokufanelekileyo imarike yetoluene. Kwangaxeshanye, abathathi-nxaxheba bemarike banenjongo eyomeleleyo ye-bullish ngokubhekiselele kwi-toluene, kwaye abanini bahlengahlengisa amaxabiso abo ngokufanelekileyo.

Nangona kunjalo, uluvo lokuthenga ezantsi kwe-toluene lubuthathaka, kwaye imithombo yexabiso ephezulu yempahla kunzima ukuyithengisa. Ukongezelela, iyunithi yokuhlengahlengiswa kwefektri ethile yaseDalian iya kulungiswa ekupheleni kukaMatshi, okuya kukhokelela ekunciphiseni okukhulu kwiintengiso zangaphandle ze-toluene kunye nokuqiniswa okubalulekileyo kokujikeleza kweemarike. Ngokwezibalo ezivela kwi-Baichuan Yingfu, umthamo osebenzayo wonyaka wemveliso ye-toluene e-China yi-21.6972 yezigidi zeetoni, kunye nesantya sokusebenza se-72.49%. Nangona uwonke umthwalo wokusebenza wetoluene kwisiza uzinzile okwangoku, kukho isikhokelo esilungileyo esilinganiselweyo kwicala lonikezelo.

Kwiimarike zamazwe ngamazwe, ixabiso le-FOB le-toluene liye laguquguquka kwimimandla eyahlukeneyo, kodwa isiqhelo sonke sihlala somelele.

3, Uhlalutyo lwemeko yemarike yexylene

Ngokufana ne-toluene, imarike ye-xylene nayo yabonisa umoya omhle xa ibuyela kwiimarike emva kweholide ngoFebruwari 19, 2024. Amaxabiso aqhelekileyo kwiimarike zaseMpuma naseMzantsi China ziye zanda zombini, ngokunyuka kwexabiso eliphakathi kwe-2.74% kunye ne-1.35%, ngokulandelanayo. Oku kunyuka kukwachatshazelwa kukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-oli ekrwada kumazwe ngamazwe, ezinye iindawo zokucoca zalapha ekhaya zinyusa iikowuteshini zangaphandle. Abanini banesimo sengqondo esikhuthazayo, kunye namaxabiso eendawo zemarike eziqhelekileyo enyuka. Nangona kunjalo, imvakalelo esezantsi yokulinda kwaye ubone yomelele, kwaye intengiselwano yendawo ilandela ngononophelo.

Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuba ukulungiswa ngokutsha kunye nokugcinwa kwefektri yaseDalian ekupheleni kukaMatshi kuya kwandisa imfuno yokuthengwa kwangaphandle kwe-xylene ukwenza i-gap yokubonelela okubangelwa kulondolozo. Ngokwezibalo ezingaphelelanga ezivela kwi-Baichuan Yingfu, amandla okuvelisa asebenzayo kwishishini le-xylene e-China yi-43.4462 yezigidi zeetoni, kunye nesantya sokusebenza se-72.19%. Ukugcinwa kwendawo yokucoca e-Luoyang nase-Jiangsu kulindeleke ukuba kunciphise ngakumbi ukunikezelwa kweemarike, ukubonelela ngenkxaso kwimarike yexylene.

Kwimarike yamazwe ngamazwe, ixabiso le-FOB lexylene likwabonisa indlela exubeneyo yokunyuka nokuhla.

4, uphuhliso olutsha kwimarike ye-styrene

Imarike ye-styrene iye yatshintsha ngokungaqhelekanga ukususela ekubuyeni koMthendeleko weNtwasahlobo. Phantsi koxinzelelo olukabini lokunyuka okubalulekileyo koluhlu lwempahla kunye nokubuya kancinci kwemfuno yemalike, iikowuteshini zemarike zibonise ukunyuka okubanzi okulandela ingqiqo yeendleko kunye nentsingiselo yedola yaseMelika. Ngokutsho kwedatha ngoFebruwari 19, ixabiso eliphezulu le-styrene kwingingqi ye-East China liye laphakama ngaphezu kwe-9400 yuan / ton, ukuya kwi-2.69% ukususela ngosuku lokugqibela lokusebenza ngaphambi kweholide.

Ngexesha loMnyhadala weNtwasahlobo, ioyile ekrwada, iidola zaseMelika, kunye neendleko zonke zibonise umkhwa owomeleleyo, okukhokelela ekunyukeni okungaphezulu kweetoni ezingama-200000 zoluhlu lweempahla kwizibuko laseMpuma China. Emva kweholide, intengo ye-styrene ikhutshwe kwimpembelelo yokubonelela kunye nemfuno, kwaye endaweni yoko yafikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso eendleko. Nangona kunjalo, okwangoku i-styrene kunye namashishini ayo asezantsi asezantsi akwimeko yokwenza ilahleko yexesha elide, kunye namanqanaba angadityanisiweyo engeniso malunga ne-650 yuan/ton. Ngenxa yokunqongophala kwengeniso, iifektri ezicwangcise ukunciphisa umsebenzi wazo ngaphambi kweholide azikaqalisi ukunyusa umgangatho wazo wokusebenza. Kwicala elisezantsi, ulwakhiwo lwezinye iifektri zeeholide luchacha kancinane, kwaye iziseko zemarike zizonke zisebuthathaka.

Ngaphandle kokunyuka okuphezulu kwimarike ye-styrene, impembelelo yempendulo engalunganga ezantsi ingabonakala ngokuthe ngcembe. Ukuthathela ingqalelo ukuba ezinye iifektri ziceba ukuqalisa kwakhona ngasekupheleni kukaFebruwari, ukuba izixhobo zokupaka zinokuphinda ziqalwe ngeshedyuli, uxinzelelo lokubonelela ngentengiso luya kunyuka ngakumbi. Ngelo xesha, imarike ye-styrene iya kugxila kakhulu ekugqithiseni, okunokuthi kwinqanaba elithile litsale ingqiqo yokunyuka kweendleko.

Ukongeza, ngokwembono ye-arbitrage phakathi kwe-benzene ecocekileyo kunye ne-styrene, umahluko wexabiso langoku phakathi kwezi zimbini ujikeleze i-500 yuan/toni, kwaye lo mahluko wamaxabiso uthotyiwe waya kwinqanaba eliphantsi. Ngenxa yenzuzo embi kwishishini le-styrene kunye nenkxaso yeendleko eziqhubekayo, ukuba imfuno yemarike iyancipha ngokuthe ngcembe